tv Trending Business Bloomberg July 24, 2016 9:00pm-11:01pm EDT
♪ rishaad: it is monday the 25th of july. this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ rishaad: we will be calling in on sydney, shanghai, and tokyo. regional equities set to start the week higher. andcy meetings of the doj fed, the hope of further easing offering support although far you asians remain less than compelling. -- although valuations remain lesson compelling.
today's yuantching facing after a report questioning its status as a safe haven currency. at today's top stories and tell me all about it. follow me on twitter @rishaadtv, and include #trendingbusiness. hong kong, shanghai opening in 30 minutes. others coming online. starting things off with a record highs. let's go to the new zealand market, up by .50%, a solid session last week, no holding on to all-time records. kathmandu up by 2%. out there.g a switch
session,lia, a solid 8/10 of 1% on the asx 200 despite volatility and weakness in some of the commodity contracts. : stocks leading the way, whitehaven up by 5%. a boost as iting announces its shots 500 stores. we've had the japan trade data better than expected, the nikkei 225 by .50%. theyen weakening to 106 to dollar. adding .2 5% kospi after a lackluster session on friday. taiwan, singapore, and malaysia joining in the buying as well.
certainly looking like the risk on rally in asia is continuing, even though analysts have been saying the run has gone too far, too fast, and we could see profit taking this week ahead of the boj meeting and the fed meeting. looking at the yen, weaker by 4/10 of 1%. 106.59. the crude contracts have come back in asian sessions after falling and the new york session on friday. this as we continue to see u.s. oil rigs come online. 1%, alsoby a third of a boost to sentiment. rishaad: thanks for that. two months ago, the yuan will be included in the basket of currencies for the imf. analyst casting doubt on its ability to achieve haven status. we are following this from shanghai. another setback for the yuan
after years of questions over its credibility, right? as you say, the timing is unfortunate. we are two months away before the yuan is officially added in that basket of currencies. away from thats august the one year anniversary, so the market feeling jitters there. umult.e had some tom has made progress getting close to pseudo-safe haven currency status. the pound, the yen, the dollar tend to rise in uncertainty measured against market volatility. over the past year, swings became larger and the yuan has underperformed and let go of
some ground it made in the last five years. the portion of yuan global payments also receded to a 2014 so globale, 1.74%, usage component is not looking good. ,he take away from this study this certainly suggest the yuan is nowhere close to being a safe haven currency, and more importantly, it's progress towards becoming a safe haven asset is looking in doubt as well. rishaad: about 3-4 years ago, this was seen as a one-way bet. it was never to my mind ever considered a safe haven. what is the thinking there? would have to you be out there to consider the chinese currency as a safe haven.
it doesn't fulfill your traditional requirements for a currency to be pegged as such or to be considered as such. essentially, you can be a reserve currency, but that does not mean you are a safe haven currency. yet tore specifications be fulfilled, transparency, reliability of policymaking. we know how ad hoc some of the us policymaking can be when it comes to china. it also has a close capital account and a very controlled currency. in fact last week, when we had that five-day recovery rally when the yuan rallied 1%, there was speculation that it was the pboc stepping in to defend the yuan ahead of the g 20 meeting. we see this quite often a had of major global offense. they try to maintain stability
when it comes to the yuan. over the weekend, we heard from the pboc governor and deputy governor saying further efforts are being made to maintain stability in the yuan. a lot of analysts suggesting consolidation around that 6.6 mark. the most recent survey of bloomberg analysts suggesting at yuan will and the year 6.79. rishaad: moving from events in china to what's going on in japan, exports dropping for a ninth straight month. june.n is in tokyo.r let's have a look at what is going on behind these numbers. what is going on? out, the dropted was not as severe as had been forecast. that is some positive news.
economists telling us that export declines may be bottoming out and we may be seeing a leveling out of this trend. are some of the biggest trading partners, still big declines, 10% with china, japan's largest trading partner, 6.5% with the u.s., and a slight decline with the eu as well, but on the positive side, much less severe than anticipated. what is behind the numbers is , they the yen strengthening making japanese products more expensive on the world stage. we got the boj meeting later this week, even though there have been some denials from the people who know. it has not damper at any expectations of further stimulus, right? >> that's right.
.e just did a survey 32 of 41 analysts say they expect further easing when the boj meets. that is the highest percentage of analysts expecting action since governor kuroda's debut three years ago. there is a lot of expectation and pressure, and we will be seeing a lot more data this week. a lot of it comes just before this meeting. a lot of expectations with the weak economy that the bank of japan needs to act, the largest expectation in terms of action is for an increase in exchange traded funds. rishaad: jodi schneider joining us from tokyo. staying in japan and looking at a game that is taking the world by storm. details of that and other stories, here is david. david: let's check in on shares of nintendo. company downplayed a potential earnings boost from pokemon go.
there we go. 16% down. coincidentally, the biggest drop in 16 years. hard to say this was out of the blue. short bets were built up of the stock went from 15,000, north of 31,000. we are 24,000 at the moment. only so much optimism pokemon go can make. this comes on the back of a statement after markets closed in tokyo that said the impact of the game on earnings will be "limited" and it does not expect to revise its forecast higher based on current conditions. the company is also trying to manage expectations ahead of earnings on wednesday. based on current projections, were looking at an annual profit so hard to0 million, justify the valuation there. just to check in on shares of
mcdonald's. it was also bought up last week on this frenzy, now down 10%. on tech and talk about one of the most anticipated deals in recent months may be announced today. yahoo!, and sources have told bloomberg that verizon has announced the buyout. assets includes property , a price tag just over $4.8 billion. yahoo! will be left with stakes in alibaba and yahoo japan. those two together are worth 40 billion based on current stock prices. is $37.5ock cap billion. before markets opened, we might
see yahoo! and its long struggle as an independent company. we reached out to both companies and they declined to comment. , bloombergto turkey was able to speak with the prime minister on sunday. he rolled out the possibility of early elections. primeked about plans to the economy, multibillion-dollar infrastructure fund, to keep growth on track could have a listen. saying to global investors, this has come and gone, and the national will and the will of the citizens has destroyed the plotters. life is back to normal in turkey. you can continue your long-term investments and we will it eliminate obstacles before you. we are laying out the turquoise carpet in front of investors and have all kinds of tax incentives come investment incentives, and we are giving priority to value added investments.
of thatn the back carpet, were looking at the lira trading at 305. as far as the size of that fund, he said it will be tens of billions of dollars. apart from that, he talked about this weeping purges of people expected to have been involved in that recent coup attempt. he said that is nearing an end. over 13,000 people have been detained. he said life there is back to normal in the country. rishaad: thanks for that. coming up, a big week in economic data to calm. will the fed surprise and pull the trigger on a rate hike? the arguments for and against that. japan's central bank also in the spotlight. stimulus speculation mounts. ♪
rishaad: you are back with "trending business". the yuan fix coming through, 6.68 as werom 6.662 edge towards that 6.7 against the dollar level, which some are suggesting as the line in the sand. central banks in the spotlight, the fed expected to hold steady, mounting speculation about the bank of japan expanding its stimulus program. fix.got that it does tell us that there is this policy of continuing to gradually weakening the yuan, what is your view? think there are any real lines in the sand, but it was a sensitive number.
obviously we had those aggressive fixings ahead of the g20, and there was nothing for china to worry about in terms of its statement or the commentary on the sidelines. i think more of the same, which if the u.s. dollar is able to track higher over the next few months and quarters, that means higher dollar china, but not aggressively so. just a pretty gentle depreciation. if we see depreciating, why is that? seem the markets, theyugh out of japan, but
have to focus on their own issues, which i'm sure we will get to. for the most part, there is a greater degree of patience and perhaps even a recognition that thentle depreciation of chinese currency is not necessarily going to cause great shifts in terms of trade competitiveness. rishaad: last week we had reports from japan suggesting that bank of japan governor corrode or would increase the stimulus program in japan by something between ¥20 trillion and ¥30 trillion. he said he would probably not do that. most economists say he is likely to increase it, but by how much? could he surprises by not surprising us? >> they have done that before. certainly governor kuroda and his team have shown that their top priority this year is not necessarily pleasing markets.
are very steep falls and dollar-yen off of their announcement. there is a lot coming out of japan and the next few weeks. the stimulus package is where the bidding war is in terms of what is likely to be announced. for friday, there are so many different policy levers they can pull. a correspondent talking about etf's, that is a popular one, i sliver of what they are purchasing at the moment, so that is an area where the market will be disappointed if that is not boosted. probably more about the composition and an increase in the total scale of quantitative easing, but really buying more jgbs. i think it is more the composition and ideally an increase in the total, but certainly risks over all for us are tilted to the downside on dollar-yen. rishaad: i really should say shinzo abeops at mr.
's desk. the upper house elections were a complicating factor. one of the arguments was governor kuroda might end up doing more. does have greater political clout to pursue structural reform, that will mean the boj feels better about doing everything it can in terms of monetary policy rather than as the g-20 said monetary policy cannot alone lead to balanced growth. rishaad: we have also got the federal reserve. what message will they send out in your view? bit more little upbeat, we think. certainly you would expect some
reference to the u.k. referendum. the last meeting was just ahead of the brexit vote. presumably they were expecting a remain vote, but it was caution that even the hawks backed off on, calling for a rate hike. the u.s. stock market at a record high, you would think that is making them feel that the brexit will not have any great impact on the u.s. economy and not a reason to keep postponing, some more optimistic on the outlook, but not explicitly flagging a hike as soon as september in our view. word and ont last that subject, looking at the foreign exchange space, a month since britain voted. in your view, are markets looking at this with sanity prevailing? >> yeah, i think they are over all regarding it as britain's
problem for the most part. the pound is a great deal weaker than it was before the vote. and also europe, on friday night, you had the decent ratings on the pmi from the eurozone, but the currency did not benefit from that. it traded in sympathy with sterling when it toppled over those poor pmi's, so mostly seen as uk's problem and to a lesser extent the eurozone's problem, and overall that is probably the right way for markets to be playing it. rishaad: have a great week. a seven-yearr hiatus, why the hong kong exchange is reintroducing an old procedure. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: you are back with "trending business". hong kong will reintroduce the stock closing auction today. we have a look at what is happening here. we just have the premarket auction closing. it looks like the hang seng is out. this is the end of the day. why does an exchange need this? they did have it, now they don't. the markets ask for it for a long time. the current closing is one minute and there is a lot of hectic trading. this is when you have to trade and send lots of orders. now they will extend it to 10 minutes to make it easier. mitigatee trying to swings in the prices and it will be a random close that well to turn gaming. rishaad: why?
it is price discovery, i suppose. what went wrong with the previous model in 2009. the hsbc shares fell in the last second and the whole model was scrapped. they have been designing it for seven years. the exchange took different models and analyze them and this is what they came up with. it is not 100% perfect, but better than the system they have now. rishaad: what other improvements is the exchange and visi envisig now to make it more attractive to investors? traders,nd managers, brokers, that will be a big improvement. sessiony the trading
♪ rishaad: a look at our top stories, regional stocks on a positive start as investors await policy decisions from the boj and fed. the weaker yen giving tokyo of those. numbers showing exports weakening, dropping for a ninth straight month in june. then to know shares plunging with billions of dollars wiped off the market value and early trade after the company released a statement saying the financial impact from pokemon go would be
limited and does not expect to revise its annual forecast higher. instead, they are trying to manage expectations ahead of earnings on wednesday. a new fed reserve report is casting doubt on the yuan's ability to achieve safe haven status. the currencies relative value has fallen as marketing volatility increased, weakening 2.8% this year. in thatbe an included imf currency basket in october. shanghai looking pretty positive. what do the opening numbers look like? juliette: the opening numbers banning on with premarket. we were seeing a .5% jump on the open, just a little that of a pullback there, the hang seng up to tens of 1%. property developers looking strong, a switch out on
financial players, the opposite across the rest of the region. consumer and financial stocks leading gains. the shanghai a-share market has open lower. some very positive moves coming through from the nikkei, up by almost 7/10 of 1%, the yen continues to weekend, the dollar strength, 106 to the yen, positive moves on the asx 200. on toaland up, holding record highs it reached last week. the philippines also coming on line and adding .5%, so certainly risk on appears to be in vogue the session, although we are expecting volatility ahead of the boj meeting and the fed meeting as well. nintendo has been the story of the day. through,ny coming
saying it is unlikely to be able to continue to rally on pokemon go alone. mcdonald's holdings also coming off as these two were paying a tie up in terms of pokemon go. yahoo japan in focus on reports that verizon is going to make a play for yahoo! before the bell tonight. down, fourthing quarter gold output fell by 6%. worth looking good, announcing job cuts and store closures. investors like the fact they are trying to get their books in order. looking at the casino stocks in hong kong in the early open, a bit of upside. galaxy lower, but j.p. morgan has come through, saying they expect growth -- growth's gaming revenue to turn positive year by the fourth quarter.
-- gross gaming revenue to turn positive year on year by the fourth quarter. the offshore renminbi weaker. at 6.6c setting the yuan 860, the weakest level since july. g-20 fine ministers and central bank governors have reiterated their pledged to use all tools to boost growth following the two-day summit in china. tom mackenzie is there. what were the concerns are the key concerns voiced at the summit? absolutely at the top of the list was week, lackluster global growth and which tools to employ to tackle it. brexit is part of the mix and is in focus. what has crystallized over the last few days is a focus on the
impact slow growth is having geopolitically and on what is seen as a growing anti-globalization movement that has been reflected in that brexit vote, but also in the u.s. with the rise of donald trump. i was lucky enough to speak to the president of the world's bank about this, and also the secretary general of the oecd. i asked them both their views on the global economy. the listen. >> we have wanted to give good news to people for a long time, but unfortunately we keep having to downgrade. it is understandable in this context. we thought the u.s. was solid, the european union, the eurozone , seem to be getting better, even japan seem to be doing a little bit that are, but then brexit was a big hit. we are still trying to understand exactly what the implications are, but it looks like global growth will be disappointing again. >> we will renew our projections
in september. then it will go country by country in november. weortunately, i think that are going to have some weaker performances, especially in the european theater. brexit, but also in general the recovery has been weaker than we thought. so policymakers really reiterating the need for fiscal stimulus and structural reform, saying there can't be a complete reliance on monetary policy, and we are seeing from japan, possibly the u.k. as well, looking at extra fiscal support. it is growth they want to tackle, and the chinese were pushing for a coordinated international response for this. the u.s. backed off on that slightly, but those are some of the key concerns, and analysts say we may start to see as a
result of this communiqué and this coordinated message put out why the g-20, more measures to get more money into the pockets of middle income earners, middle income families, particularly in the developed world. many european delegates there as well. did you talk to them about brexit and what it means for europe as a whole and may start? tom: absolutely. the new u.k. chancellor of the exchequer philip hammond was in demand. he gave a presentation, trying to spell out what their plans are, with the british government plans are, but we don't have a date yet. we did speak to the european commissioner for finance affairs. he did say time is of the essence. he expects to hear from the british on when they will trigger article 50 in september.
we also heard from the french finance minister, who said that at the very latest article 50 should be triggered early next year, but preferably by the end of this year. the u.s. from their port are saying you have to give britain time to prepare the negotiation stance, and talks are happening. you can't start the official negotiations, but you can start to talk about those negotiations, and those talks have started. there does need to be clarity on the british plans, and that's what ministers and policymakers were calling for. rishaad: let's get you to some data out of japan with numbers showing an improvement in some aeas, although there is still feeling of deep challenges which face the economy. david is with me now. david: were talking about things japan can and can't control. things like the external demand situation. we did get june trade data.
i want to show you how exports have been doing since 2013. these were the good years of abenomics. -- we are also continuing contending with a high base here, a ninth straight month of declines. china, 10% decline. flat with the eu, so on and so forth. i want to show you that it is not just japan that is experiencing this. and thesek at japan other exporting countries across asia. the barrel, but it is also because of weak external demand. chinae of slowing china, as the biggest trading partner of single -- every single one of these countries you see here. japan still has a little bit of a way to go because of the stronger currency. we also got import data. have a look at this. to 2014, and back
this is the string of the kleins we have seen. 18 straight months. wethe string of declines have seen. 18 straight months. there is also japan importing the flechette, the measure of the value of imports from the year before. it is a stronger currency and the element of oil. japan has had to import all its energy needs. have a look at this other chart that puts together the imports and oil, a bit thinner, but the oil price when it went from $110 to $40 to $50 at the moment. japan importing cheaper oil with a stronger currency does devalue your imports. that is the ticker at the bottom right of your screen. obviously it is not everything, but does tell you something.
rishaad: thank you very much. rth shares moving upwards. this after the retailer announced 500 jobs would go and book pretax charges of one billion australian dollars. it looks like they are willing to endure short-term pain for a long-term gain. of that new part ceos operating review. laymanup might be what a would call it. the hardware chain is gone. there is this, 500 jobs to be lost across woolworth. 2016 still and line with what it was, but take a look at pretax charges.
959 million australia strain dollars worth of write-downs. almost one billion all strain dollars worth of charges there. how do they break down? , 151 million there, separated from easy by, the online retailer. 309 million there. woolworth's will be looking for buyers for both businesses. 340 4,000,004 store closures, and the number of pipelines stores have been canceled or deferred. will worth opening just 45. the market really liking this. woolworth up five and two thirds of percent, the best performer on the asx right now. rishaad: thanks a lot. let's have a look at some other stories.
with the democratic party chair stepping down over claims of political bias threatening party unity as the convention opens in philadelphia, debbie wasserman schultz will quit after the wiki leaks release of e-mails suggesting they worked to undermine bernie sanders. hillary clinton and president obama issued statements calling debbie wasserman schultz a friend. russia's olympic team has avoided a blanket ban, but individuals have meet extra anti-doping commissions. the ioc says it respects the rights of those who have not broken the rules. russia is accused of running a state-sponsored doping program, and its athletics team has been barred from rio. flooding in china cost more than 300,000 -- force more than 300,000 people from their homes. it is china's worst flood damage since 1998, 53,000 houses destroyed and 30,000 hectares of
applied for an ipo. proceeds would go to the chinese conglomerate who bought it last year. a ratings firm assigned ironshore a negative outlook because of credit profile and high debt leverage. say a domestic ipo may be planned for miss 60. they are eyeing a $5 billion violation. long list of clothing retailers who have funded their expansion through an ipo. tobal growth forecast cut 3.1%, but our next guest sees lower expansion, 2.9%. he is cohead of global economics
and chief asia economist for morgan stanley. this week is going to be dominated by the bank of japan. will they increase that stimulus program? perhaps it feeds into your notion of cutting global growth further than the imf. to dodo expect them additional monetary did of -- easing. we mentioned earlier, monetary policy effectiveness is waning, so we are watching what the government will do on the fiscal stimulus. we expect a .7% of gdp primary ,eficit expansion in japan which is good, but will still need more stimulus in 2018 to completely get rid of the problem of deflation risk they are facing now. time, private sector momentum is slowing, so more
focus on fiscal stimulus than monetary stimulus. rishaad: absolutely, that is what we are looking at. monetary stimulus seems to be like fogging a dead horse. we need to go back to seeing this issue that the world is facing, particularly developed markets. we need to go back to the 1930's. 10 year bond yields across developed markets are below the rate in the 1930's, and so at economynt the global was bailed out by aggressive fiscal stimulus. years of stimulus was genuine, not triggered by in abut later it resulted larger fiscal stimulus, so hopefully we don't need a war. if we can do moderate fiscal meaningfulhat is enough to revive demand, that would be the one to watch right now. perhaps an extreme way
of getting out of this mess, but what about other countries? the global environment is not exactly great. if we have a stronger yen, we saw the export numbers. it does not completely explain why exports fell as much as they did. been weekorts have generally because global growth has been week. beenelationship has also weakened a lot more in the sense that the trade has weakened more than the global growth, and that is because emerging markets, which are more trade oriented, had been doing quite badly. they had been decelerating for the last four years, and that has weighed a lot, particular china come on global trade, so it is not just global growth. there is a part that is waiting on global trade. rishaad: looking ahead, bank of england, more stimulus, not that much room to cut rates, but they
can do a little bit. the ecb, what do they do as well? inwe are expecting rate cuts -- by the bank of england. 25-40 basis rate cuts from the boe, and expect extension of qe by ecb, so we do expect more monetary stennis, monetaryjapan, -- stimulus, not from japan, but from other parts of the world. from the fed, were not expecting a rate hike. think this is only marginal support. the real support from the world will have to come from fiscal policy. there is a political cycle, u.s. it, buts, japan will do not aggressive. in england, you have the problem of this political situation
because of brexit. in europe, there is always a problem for doing stimulus. in fact, the european commission will levy a nominal fine, but the structure is such that you are not get aggressive fiscal response there is a, so that's why the bottom line of global growth i was mentioning earlier is going to remain week. it will be two point 9% in 2016, and 3.2% in 2017. somead: you are mentioning political headwinds. a lot of them so far this year. running into the american election as well in november. these all pose downside risks. is there anything that could cause them to turn around and give us an upside? the momentum can come out of stimulus and a coordinated manner.
i think we can possibly take care of this political cycle. , outside risksn from the emerging markets. they will see a recovery in 2017. if we see that improvement faster, that could bring some upside. we are looking for upside out of china. lot of commodity producers seem to have started to find some bottom, particularly russia and brazil. they have seen improvement in macro stability indicators that current account balance inflation. ,entral banks are cutting rates so that's where we could see some upside risk out of global growth. rishaad: great talking to you. we have to take a break. up next, apple's iphone was once the top choice in china, but that is no longer the case.
rishaad: right, you are back with "trending business". apple's iphone was once the top choice in china, but losing share to cheaper rivals. has been identified, this ist, by apple, so a very important market, possibly the most important market. it is the second-largest market outside the u.s. for apple. it has huge growth, growing middle class, macro story that apple wants to be part of. there are all these services new to chinese audiences, streaming services, that apple has lost in
the west. if it can get on the ground floor, it can be part of that rise. rishaad: you have a lot of other companies doing that now. >> that is the problem. the main thing in china is government regulations clapping -- clamping down on china, a brands,yuan, and local brands you and i have never heard of. it is an incredible number. rishaad: they have to keep up against him, and they are cheaper. they are undercutting. >> this is the problem. made inr phones are china, you should not be surprised to see chinese phones almost as good as yours. it does not have that cachet, but it has a growing sense of national pride. it is a point of pride to own a chinese phone. rishaad: especially when you
business.""trending i'm her shot salaam it. rishaad salamat. rishaad: off to tokyo. this is a look at what we are watching. start ofsing at the the week that includes policy meetings for the federal reserve and the boj. the japanese central bank, widely expected to add stimulus. the people's bank of china week in today's yuan fixing.
we had a fed report questioning its status as a potential haven currency. we've got will worth shares jumping in sydney. they are looking at better profits in the future, and that is a $716 million pretax charge. closew ceo is set to doors and cut down on costs. let's get you up to speed with asian equities, which are on a bit of a tear. the yen and some other safe havens, like gold. let's have a look at what is going on with the market action so far. >> since we last spoke, a little bit coming back from some of those markets. you are seeing solid support from the nikkei, australia, and new zealand.
it's also worth noting that the philippines is up by over 1%. it's one of the best-performing markets in the region. jakarta is up 2/10 of 1%. there has been a switch out of the hang seng here in hong kong. regional equity index is down 2/10 of 1%. you can see lenovo group coming under pressure on the back of that pokemon affect that dave is going to talk about, and we have seen city specifics coming under pressure. pretty bullish call on the casino sector from jpmorgan. the shanghai composite has actually reversed its earlier losses. it's up right 2/10 of 1%. also, a little bit of a switch out of the cost be -- kospi in korea. look at the regional index, you can see it is pretty flat. that is as we seem more weakness coming through. some of those consumer groups
stocks, which were rallying in the earlier session, starting to turn negative. support coming through on financials, oil, and gas stocks. we are showing you the won that history to weaken, 1136.84. of course, it has been about the japanese yen, as well. 106 to the dollar, giving a good boost to japanese equities. it is down for tenths of 1%. -- 4/10 of 1%. at 245: we are looking billion yuan. the operating margin, relatively healthy. first-half operating margins of 12 thing percent. more with discussing brian mock coming up. two months before the yuan is said to be to to be included in
currencies -- reserve currencies, a new report is questioning its status as haven -- as a haven. we have had a lot of questions about its credibility, heidi. we have seen a gradual downtick for the currency, as well. >> the morning after the g20 wrapped up, the pboc, really setting that daily fixing. it does seem this the depreciation is continuing. as you said, it's been a tumultuous year since we had that sdr decision from the imf last october. we are two months out from that official conclusion. this report said there's quite a bit of ground that was made up by the yuan during that. . -- during that period.
the yen, the dollar, the euro, and of course the pound. year, it'sst essentially taken a step backwards. in terms of measuring the performance of the yuan against market swings, it's done quite poorly over the past 12 months. if you look at it from another perspective, the use of the yuan has come down a little bit, 1.72% in june. that is the lowest since september 2014. it certainly looks like it is two steps backwards, as well. the take away from this study -- the findings don't support the suggestion that the one is a safe haven currency. that is not really controversial. i don't think anyone thinks it is. more critically, in a sense, it questions the notion that the room and be is progressing towards safe haven status. for the bit of a dent greater globalization of the chinese currency. rishaad: it is globalization. the reference is the sdr.
we discussed this before. >> it's a little bit confusing. in the past, we have had episodes of market volatility. in order to become a true safe haven currency, it's not fulfill a number of requirements. the fact that it is still, despite the declines of this year, it is still a tightly controlled currency.
that has only allowed it to trade within a certain band. happenf things need to before it becomes a true safe haven currency. analysts are saying, just because you are officially a reserve currency, which is the nod from the imf does for the one, it still means the currencies are very different things. a long way to go for the chinese currency. rishaad: thank you. we are going to have a look at exports in japan. we saw smaller drop than economists were looking for, a drop of 1.74% in june, the ninth straight month we have seen declines. let's get to jodi schneider. she is in tokyo. people are putting this at the thistep of the yen at point. it also stems from what is going on in a macro sense globally. that's right. on the one hand, things are looking better. economists told us, even though
this is the ninth consecutive decline, things seem to be bottoming out. if you look beyond the numbers a little bit, though value has declined again, volume was up for the first time in several months, as much as 3%. that is a difference on. one economist said, even with the yen strengthening, you saw better numbers. that is also a good sign. country by country, there's weakness. 10%.a, down the yen.ll about we've seen the strength of the yen that made these products more expensive on the world stage. rishaad: what does this data mean especially as we get the boj meeting this week? jodi: all eyes are on the boj meeting later this week, along with some other data we are
going to have just before that meeting. this shows continued weakness in the economy of japan, and even though these numbers were better than expected and we see bright spots, it is still a week report. this leads to more pressure for more easing. the expectation is four more easings. economists expect easing on friday. that is the largest percentage since governor kuroda's decision more than three years ago. expectation for a boost is for an increase in exchange traded funds. all data will be looked at through that prism of the boj, but given this data, there are more expectations for further easing. rishaad: thanks, jodi. we will have a detailed look at that story throughout the course of the program. we do value your opinion. .weet us your thoughts please include #trendingbusiness.
it is a gang that is causing a frenzy globally. it's causing a frenzy when it comes to trading. it is a story david is looking at. david: let's start with nintendo. 22 minutes until the lunch break, can't come any sooner. have a look at shares. last i checked, we were down 16%. 16.4%, shares down the most in almost 16 years. we all know of course the surge we saw in shares, but also, the short positions were built up as quickly as shares went up that took the price from 15,000, went up to as much as 31,900, now back to about 24,000. there is only so much optimism pokemon can give you in a day. a statement is coming from the company itself after the markets closed friday that the impact of the game pokemon go and its earnings will be limited as it
does not expect a revised upward its earnings based on current conditions. the company is trying to manage expectations ahead of its earnings report or there's an update on its outlook. based on current projections, we are looking at an annual profit seen topping just about $330 million. at a of $335 million, it's hard to justify. , also being bought up. it's outperforming nintendo, if you look at the glass half-full. one of the most anticipated deals of the year may be announced as early as today. we are talking yahoo!, and we are talking about its future. set to announce its buyout of the company's core assets monday. it includes real estate assets, a price tag over $4.8 billion.
when you say yahoo!, after this transaction, it will mean the company that owns a stake in alibaba and yahoo japan. those two stakes are worth about $40 billion combined. the market cap of yahoo!, just under $37.5 billion. later markets open tonight, we might see yahoo! and its struggle as an independent company -- we will have an update once the announcement is made. another mover we have been following is will worth's. what do we have? job cuts. that's a good move for the company longer-term. shares are up the most in eight years. 5.4%. taking gains from early july to 15%, we are still obviously way off these record highs, when the share price was closer. $39 back in 2004. investors have been bracing for
the company's first-ever annual loss as a public company. the cost of these changes, if you will, the pretax charge, close to one billion aussie dollars. that's the combined cost of doing things like writing down the values of tech assets. you are looking at shutting down underperforming stores and 500 job cuts that will take place in the back office. a big pop in shares, 5% or 6%. rishaad: apples china's problem. it's all about cheap phones. that is a bloomberg.com/asia. the turkishxt, prime minister will discuss the fall from the countries failed coup. plus, more on our website. the world's third-largest smartphone brand is getting set to release earnings, sales up
>> the question, as you point out, is, how much does that come at the expense of -- are they spending more on r&d, marketing? they are expected to be quite aggressive, and we expect more of that. at what cost? that is the question. rishaad: the thing is, you can't grow in a straight line forever, and they do have a lot of challenges. when you look at the smartphone space, what is going on with 300-plus competitors making smartphones. >> yeah, absolutely. there is quite a bit of competition. you got local vendors in china, vivo, even more aggressive than they are. we are expecting to see more coming from there. the other question is, you've
got the big incumbents, samsung and apple. huawei has the ambition to become one of the largest vendors in the world. the challenge when it comes to apple, there is quite a bit of a cachet that apple commands at huawei. it leaves a bit to be desired. samsung has been a bit wobbly, too. they've got an advantage of scale that is going to go in their favor. that is going to be a challenge for huawei. that point, as well, you mentioned the cachet. there is a bit of a story out today suggesting, fine, we've got apple. it's got the best brand recognition when it comes to smartphones. huawei, really hot on its heels. you can get the same functionality but a much cheaper price in china. why buy an iphone? >> the thing to keep in mind with all of this, that
phenomenon has been happening for a while. you have had a lot of these local chinese phones coming in at midrange prices but having higher and specs. the question that needs to be answer here is whether or not apple wants to move away from the high-end over to the midrange. on paper, that would make sense. you want to chase after a larger market. actually works against what apple's strategy really is. if you look at apple, they are a luxury goods brand. it's not just by cachet. there is this huge desire for apple as a brand name. i don't think they necessarily have tried to go down that path, going down to midrange. i think it is an apples interest to stay in that high-end, and you can argue that huawei and these guys are more of an indirect competitor to apple. when we look at apple earnings later this week, i'm not expecting great news, but it's not going to be much due to competition from huawei and
these other guys. frankly, the products we have seen from apple and from the rumors we are seeing in the next iteration, it's not that dramatic a change. the feedback we have been getting is, why should i buy that iphone? it doesn't physically look different from the previous one. that is what apple needs to address. rishaad: cachet, isn't it part and parcel of being constantly innovative. that is what the product is all about. >> it's not to discredit apple in the sense that they are continuing to push ahead. argue that the products really are one of the best ones out there. having said that, what i'm getting at is the physical look of the devices. if you look at the 6s compared to the six, it didn't look that different. if you believe the rumors coming
down the pipeline from the 7 ory line, the iphone whatever they decide to call it, it physically doesn't look that different. i'm sure there are technology improvements, cameras, whatever it's going to be, but because this is a luxury good in china -- that is what we need to keep in mind -- it is about appearance. if it physically doesn't look different from the old one, that is going to create problems for apple. it might not look as good as when they brought out the looknal 6 plus, which did traumatically different because it was big. rishaad: thanks for that, brian long. earnings are out july 27. let's tell you about our latest bloomberg business flash headlines. -- the companyl is playing to boost staff at its u.s. securities division by 50 or 60 people, and it will include hires for underwriting.
the japanese company, winning a bigger slice of managing deals the last fiscal year. insurance co. i am sure is filing for an ipo in the u.s.. for ansure is filing ipo in the u.s. the chinese conglomerate bought it last year. a jeans maker may be facing losses in china. the brand is planning a domestic ipo by next year. trendy international is said to be eyeing a $5 billion valuation. we've got to take a break, but
market. the jci ended in a bull market at the end of june. it's up 13% year to date through the rupiah, up 5%, third-best performer in asia. yes, confidence the amnesty law will bring back money, including the $200 billion believed to be stashed in the lion city. here's what the finance minister has to say. take a listen. >> we have a strong case. terms -- what in we have on is revived our economic growth. we are trying to revive economic growth by trying to attract more capital inflow. 240 million people in indonesia, only 28 million registered taxpayers.
the amnesty law is a way to boost revenue and gdp. what is indonesia saying about reversing what is going on with growth? you can't rely on this to be the panacea. >> you are right. now that the amnesty bill has been pushed through, the focus is on attracting investment. the plan is to cut red tape, yes. we have heard that before. that is the plan. it's now easier to get investment permits. there is more work to be done. top 40s to be among the countries on the world bank's ease of doing business index. it is now sitting at 69. the plan is to attract investment in several sectors, manufacturing, infrastructure services, and especially tourism. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for that. we've got to take a break, but
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♪ at our toplook stories, retail benchmark pulling back from earlier gains. it does, as investors await policy decisions from the fed and boj. weaker yen giving tokyo shares of those, exports still weakening, ninth straight fall in june. after a new report out on the currency's ability to achieve haven status. it's relative iu has fallen
since late last year. relative value has fallen since late last year. imf'sl be included in the currency reserve basket as of october. sidney, retailers looking at a pretax charge. the company's new ceo setting plan, cutting jobs, closing stores, and writing down assets. he said that woolworth is facing up to reality and putting its past behind us. 5.6%. up >> we are seeing that woolworth 0.5%elp the asx 100, up by . new zealand holding on to record highs.
we have seen japanese shipments fall for a ninth consecutive month. the trade surplus in june better than expected. japanesede to equities, although they have come off earlier gains. the nikkei is up by 4/10 of 1%. positive news in the equity space, the yen continues to weaken. weakness in equities is singapore, down .25%. hong kong dragging on the regional index. also weakness in taiwan and a currency in korea. some downside from lenovo, also week on the back of that nintendo story. nintendo shares at the moment, open down 6%. the company itself saying it is unlikely that pokemon go affect will be significant.
mcdonald's also coming under pressure. tie up with the yahoo!, meaning yahoo japan will be one of its assets. yahoo japan is flat. having a look at that pop on woolworth, its main rival stronger. some weakness in gold players. new crest mining coming through with a 6% fall in fourth-quarter production. rishaad: right, g 20 finance ministers and central bank governors have renewed a pledge in china. tom mackenzie is there. a lot of concerns out of there. what are the ones getting the most attention? a bit of a bleak backdrop. palateus was on the
global growth picture -- pallid global growth picture. also, what it means for anti-globalization sentiment. slower growth many say is feeding into this and we see it reflected in brexit and the rise of donald trump. those are some key concerns. we spoke to the world bank president and the oecd secretary-general. i asked them both what their views were on the global economy. take a listen. >> we wanted to give good news to people for a long time, but unfortunately we keep having to downgrade. it is understandable in this context. we thought the u.s. was solid, the european union, the eurozone, seem to be getting better, even japan doing better, but then brexit was a big hit. we are still trying to
understand exactly what the implications are, but it looks like global growth will be disappointing again. >> we will renew our projections in september. we will go country by country in november. weortunately, i think that are going to have some weaker performances, especially in the european theater. , but also because the recovery has been weaker than we thought in general. really the focus on extra fiscal support and structural reforms to prop up the global economy. we are seeing japan working on an extra budget. theish chancellor of exchequer philip hammond suggesting he may also look at additional fiscal wriggle room for the u.k. in the weeks and months ahead. mobilere the things that leaders and policymakers are calling for.
they say there has been too much reliance on central banks. there was also a push for greater global coronation from china, the u.s. closing back. seeysts saying we may aggressive moves on taxation, closing loopholes in the global tax system and infrastructure, also on the agenda. there have been a lot of european delegates there. has there been any movement on that brexit negotiation? we had the new prime minister theresa may said they will not be article 50 before the end of the year. people are trying to push things along, aren't they? interesting that, isn't it? inlip hammond was here and great demand and gave a presentation to his european counterparts. tospoke about the timetable
the french finance minister and the european commissioner in charge of economics and financial affairs. he was quite clear that the timing is crucial and that the brits need to get a move on. take a listen. >> it is up to them to a by a weight that. it is huge work. it is also something we have to manage for ourselves. we need to prepare negotiations for the eu, but not too much time. one factor that is important is predictability. what ever this time is, at one stage we must know if it is december, january, or so on. commissioner saying that he expects to hear from the british government in september as to when they will trigger article 50. when we spoke to the french finance minister, he said that
article 50 should be triggered preferably by the end of this year, at the very latest at the beginning of next year, because from the french perspective it is about sending the right message to investors, certainty, and clarity. the u.s. from their percent of -- perspective saying they need their time to get their house in order. they have started talks with brits about those negotiations. interestingly, the european saying the emperor structure they put in place post-2008-2009 financial crisis insulated europe to some degree from the effects of brexit. the german find minister saying volatility around the brexit question is lower and more confident. they say the longer this goes on, the more risk for uncertainty. foraad: tom mackenzie there us. data out of japan, an
improvement in some areas, but the numbers underscore the deep challenges facing the economy. we were talking about those export numbers, not quite as bad as expected, but not going well for japan, is it? david: it's not. 7.4% drop, better than the most bullish forecast. that being said, you look at the trend, and june was a particularly bad month for japan, ninth straight month of declines. going back to 2013, these were the good months during abenomics when the yen started to weaken. 2014,ike was following and as the yen strengthened, exports continued to fall. it's not just a japan problem. have a look at this. japan still bottom of the barrel , but you look across asia, south korea, taiwan, singapore, these big exporting powerhouses
across asia, we are still seeing declines in exports. graphic and rewind it 3-4 months, double digit declines, so we are seeing an improvement. in japan's case with a strengthening japanese yen, exports to china and the rest of asia falling, this does not exactly help. when you look at the import number, a similar looking graphic taking you back to 2014, 18 straight months of declines. a lot of this has to do with the price of oil as it imports cheaper and cheaper oil, the value continues to fall. if you take for example the bigger picture, china producer prices comment you extrapolate and put that on top of it, that will show you the same thing. andou take oil for example, japan has been exporting a lot of energy needs -- importing a
lot of its energy needs, there is a clear correlation between the value of imports and oil. the reason i bring this up, imports he'll, the price of oil the $110 to $40 or so, reason i bring this up is because people have started to talk about cheaper and cheaper oil. if that continues to fall, don't expect import prices and imported deflation to improve anytime soon. that is something people have flagged when you look at these numbers. rishaad: quickly checking some other stories, the democratic already chair stepping down over claims of political bias, threatening party unity as the convention opens in philadelphia. debbie wasserman schultz will quit after the conviction -- convention. wikileaks released e-mails diminishhey worked to bernie sanders.
more than 300,000 people displaced from their homes and hundreds missing after china's worst flood damage. 50,000 houses destroyed and hector'sctoliters -- of crops loss. russia's olympic team avoided a blanket ban from the real games, but individuals will have to meet extra anti-doping conditions. the ioc says it respects the rights of those who have not broken the rules, but critics of is accusedn, russia of running a state-sponsored doping program and its athletics team has been barred from attending those real games. right, a look at shares in woolworth on an absolute tear. the retailer announcing 500 jobs to go, book pretax charges of one billion australian dollars.
paul allen is in sydney. it looks like they are willing to endure short-term pain for arguably long-term gains. yes, it is important to get that the right way. looking good. the operating review of the new ceo continues apace. it is a real cleanup. unload seen woolworth the masters hardware chain, and now this latest installment, 500 jobs to go from support office and supply chain, leaving it unchanged for earnings out next huge, 2.55 billion, a pretax charge of 959 million austrian dollars. rishaad: right, exactly. i mean those are charges there. how do those numbers breakdown? varietyey come from a
of parts of the business, one was the big w department stores, something of an albatross. austrian dollar write-down, linked to the online , 309 million buy there. buyers forooking for both businesses. store closures, 334 million there, a number of nonperforming stores to go across australia and new zealand. instead of opening 90 stores over the next three years, there will be just 45. the market greeting this warmly. woolworth up 6% and easily the best performer on the asx 200 today. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. up next, turkey's prime minister said the country did not deserve it a ratings downgrade. our exclusive interview is next. ♪
rishaad: a quick check of the latest this is flash headlines. lighting's having a dip after the biggest gold producers said fourth-quarter output will missed estimates. down 11% in the three months ending in june. new crest shares have almost doubled in the past 12 months. william hill may be facing a takeover. competitors say they are considering a joint offer. they have until august 21 to announce their bid. aroundfer could be worth $4 billion. william hill struggling to boost growth as it underperforms in online betting. thelatest installment in
rebooted star trek series top the north american box office with almost $60 million in ticket sales. knocked thee on secret life of pets from the top spot. .ough competition as itgood news for viacom tries to sell its stake. has beenrime minister rolling out early elections, saying the government is planning a multibillion-dollar infrastructure fund to keep the governor on track and limit the fallout from this month's failed coup. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg. had ancoup attempt economic damage that has incurred on the turkish economy. s&p immediately decreased our rating, and i think that was not an ethical stand. it was taking benefit of the situation. we are a nation which has
overcome a big coup attempt. we have struggled to keep democracy running, and these such agencies should not be rushing into the situation. they should not be deciding immediately. we would have to expect them to wait and then decide on this measure. this was something that was saddening for us. the turkish economy does not deserve this if you look at the indicators. when you look at european countries, the debt is considerably higher than our debt. when we look at the gross national income and take proportion with the debt, the debt of turkey is around 30-32%. this is 116% in the european in oecd countries, 93%. when we look at the criteria, there is a must no country in the european union that has met this criteria. since the 2009 global financial
crisis, turkey has a very smooth performance. the banking sector is very strong, and the capital's efficiency ratio is 15.5%. .his is almost doubled the 8% so taking into account all these factors, what criteria do you have to reduce the ranking? ,ecrease the rating of turkey this does not base itself on any scientific or economic criteria. it is an ideological and political decision. we have no doubt about that. what we are saying to global investors is that this has come and gone, and the national will and the will of the citizens has destroyed the plotters. life is back to normal in turkey, and you can continue your long-term investments. we will it eliminate obstacles before you. we are laying out the turquoise carpet in front of investors. we have all kinds of tax
incentives, investment incentives, and we are giving priority to value added investments. you had forecast a strong first quarter for the turkish economy, however it was dependent on consumer spending and government spending. private investment has not really been a great contributor to turkish economic growth for quite some time. improvementwas an in net foreign investment to turkey at the beginning before the coup attempt. is it of concern to you that lessen andnow therefore put pressure on the turkish economy on a weak spot, the current account deficit, which remains the third in g-20 nations? continue with our large-scale investments without putting our foot on the brake. just before the religious
holiday, we opened a bridge on june 30. july 26, we will have the third bridge and inaugurated. in the beginning of 2018, we will have the first terminal of the largest airport in europe, which will be and not graded on december 20 and we will have the eurasian tunnel, which will be inaugurated. lay the we will cornerstones of the longest bridge in the world without slowing down. turkey will continue its investments. rishaad: that was the turkish prime minister talking to us exclusively. up next, revising the rules, why the hong kong exchange has chosen to revisit the past. ♪
rishaad: this is "trending business". hong kong said to reintroduce a today, asing auction staple of every other developed market. -- tell us what this actually enables people to do first of all. >> it enables people to basically improve the quality of the markets and makes it easier for brokers and traders to trade in the last minutes of the day. this new procedure sets up closing price, which is
important for many fund managers. went wrong, so what with the previous model in 2009 that they abandon it? >> they abandoned it in 2009, but in 2008, hsbc shares fell 10% and there was big discussion about manipulation. it took them some time to to come up with this new model, which is going live today. rishaad: it's now going to work for about 10 minutes. >> exactly. systemrent or previous was one minute. they were taking snapshots in deriving the closing price, so there was really massive trading, especially on rebalancing day. it was hectic. now they have extended it to 10
minutes, giving you more time to trade. perhaps clear up any misunderstandings or whatever. now what are the other improvements the exchanges planning? they want more investors to be trading. stage ofrrent initial the closing auction will cover only the biggest stocks, a-shares an etf's. later, they will cover the rest of the shares and expand. at thet thing on stream end of august is a measure to prevent massive swings and shares, of volatility control. rishaad: are we hearing anything about when we might get this shenzhen connect? market participants are anticipating it at any time. it is not clear what the delay is about. it seems like it is mostly on the chinese side.
when it is announced, it will be less than three months. may be ready as soon as possible to go and trade. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. the hang seng flat. it has moved below the gain line. generally, asia stocks giving up gains at the start of the session. that is it for this monday edition of "trending business". andyou will be a long updating you with the big stories of the day on "asia edge." that is next. ♪
to a low notunge seen since 1989 as it warns of the financial impact of pokemon go. continued bites from apple's margaret -- market share. i'm juliette sally, keeping an eye on the market. investors trying to keep the risk on appetite alive. it is a week in hope of more stimulus. they have really moved in on the hang seng index in hong kong. at 11 these stocks remain month highs and the new zealand bulls continue to be out in force. angie? angie: